Aviation is Moving Away from the Net Zero 2050 Goal: Why the SAF Shortage is Important for Travelers

Global aviation is entering a new phase of climate and fuel crisis: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2026, according to IATA estimates, will cover only about 0.8% of global jet fuel consumption, while to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the industry will need approximately 500 million tons of such fuel per year. For passengers, this means not only a discussion about ecology, but also very practical consequences: more expensive tickets on certain markets, more "green" fees, slower fleet updates, and a more careful choice of routes.

At the annual IATA summit in Rio de Janeiro, the aviation industry effectively admitted that its climate trajectory is becoming less predictable. The public goal remains the same: airlines declare their aspiration to achieve net zero CO2 by 2050. But a fresh assessment by IATA shows that the key tool for this transition is scaling up significantly slower than needed. SAF is intended to be the main source of emission reductions, as it can be used in existing aircraft without a complete overhaul of airport infrastructure. The problem is that the world is producing it in volumes that are minuscule for aviation.

According to IATA, global SAF production in 2026 is expected to be approximately 2.4 million tons. This is more than in 2024, when the volume was about 1 million tons, and more than in 2025, when production was estimated at approximately 1.9 million tons. But the growth rate is already slowing down, and the gap with the 2050 requirement remains colossal. If the current level is compared to the benchmark of 500 million tons, the industry needs to increase annual production more than 250 times.

What is SAF and Why Aviation Relies on It So Much

SAF, or sustainable aviation fuel, is a sustainable aviation fuel that can be produced from used cooking oil, biomass waste, agricultural residues, renewable electricity, and carbon. Its main advantage for aviation is that it is a "drop-in" fuel: it can be mixed with conventional jet fuel and used in modern aircraft without waiting for mass electric or hydrogen airliners.

That is why IATA estimates the potential contribution of SAF to achieving net zero at approximately 65% of all necessary emission reductions. Other components—new aircraft technologies, operational efficiency, better air traffic organization, offset mechanisms, and carbon capture—are also needed, but none of them can quickly replace liquid fuel on long-haul routes. Tourist flights between Europe, North America, Asia, and the Middle East will depend on aircraft requiring high-energy liquid fuel for a long time.

However, SAF has a weak point: it is more expensive, the market is still young, and production chains are not keeping pace with political goals. IATA points out that the price for airlines includes not only production itself, but also certification, transaction costs, logistics, and markups in the supply chain. In Europe, the difference between production cost and market price for certain types of SAF has already reached significant values, making mandatory quotas sensitive for airlines and passengers.

Why This News is Important Right Now

The 2050 climate goal itself is not new. What is new is the tone of the discussion against the backdrop of the 2026 energy crisis. IATA, in its June forecast, describes the aviation sector as an industry that is simultaneously facing high prices for traditional fuel, regional supply disruptions, rising costs for SAF, and political pressure to reduce emissions. In other words, airlines must invest in decarbonization exactly when basic fuel costs have already risen.

According to IATA's estimate, the average price of SAF in 2026 could create an additional fuel burden of approximately 4.3 billion dollars for the aviation industry. For the passenger, this figure does not automatically translate into an identical surcharge on every ticket, but it explains the general direction: where mandates, environmental fees, or expensive offset schemes are in place, airlines will have to find a balance between tariffs, flight frequencies, and route profitability.

This may be particularly noticeable on routes with a high share of long-haul transport and in regions where regulators introduce climate requirements more quickly. The European market already has a complex combination of SAF mandates, emission trading systems, and high airport costs. For tourists, this means that a "cheap flight on any date" will become a less guaranteed norm, and the difference between a direct flight, a flight with a layover, and a trip by alternative transport may grow.

What This Means for Airfare Prices

The most practical question for travelers is whether travel will become more expensive. The answer is cautious: not every ticket will become more expensive immediately because of SAF, but structural pressure on prices is increasing. An air ticket consists of a fare, taxes, fees, fuel surcharges, service payments, and additional services. When fuel costs rise or new climate obligations are introduced, airlines absorb some of the costs, compensate for some through efficiency, and gradually pass some into the price.

The most sensitive periods may be popular demand periods: summer vacations, school holidays, major sporting events, Christmas and New Year trips. On such dates, airlines have more opportunities to pass costs into the fare because demand is stronger. In contrast, during the off-season, competition may restrain prices, but reduced frequencies or replacing a wide-body aircraft with a smaller plane will also affect seat availability.

For long-haul travel, not only the base fare but also the total cost of the route will become important. For example, passengers flying through major hubs such as London Heathrow (LHR), Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG), Frankfurt (FRA), Dubai (DXB) or Singapore Changi (SIN) will increasingly compare not only the ticket price, but also the layover duration, the risk of delays, the cost of a night near the airport, and ground transfer.

Why This May Change Route Networks

The SAF shortage does not mean that airlines will massively abandon international flights. But it adds another factor to network decisions. Routes that are well-filled and have strong solvent demand withstand additional costs more easily. Routes with thin margins, seasonal demand, or complex logistics may be reviewed more quickly.

In a tourist sense, this is important for cities and resorts that depend on air accessibility. If fuel becomes more expensive and environmental requirements tighten, airlines will calculate every frequency more carefully. For large hubs, this could mean a strengthening of the role of connecting traffic. For smaller airports—greater competition for flights, marketing support, and demand guarantees. For tourists—the need to plan trips earlier, especially for destinations with a limited number of seasonal flights.

At the same time, SAF can become not only a problem but also a competitive advantage. Airports, countries, and fuel suppliers that create a reliable infrastructure for sustainable fuel more quickly will gain an argument for attracting airlines. In the long term, access to SAF may influence where airlines open bases, which hubs develop long-haul flights, and where tourist markets receive better connectivity.

What Travelers Should Consider

For the average passenger, this news does not mean that they should stop traveling. Rather, it suggests how to plan flights more wisely during a period when aviation is becoming more expensive and more regulated. Before booking, it is worth comparing not only the "cheapest" option but also the entire journey: how long the layover is, whether an overnight stay is needed, how convenient it is to get from the airport, whether there is a risk of schedule changes, how much luggage costs, and whether all fees are included.

If the route goes through a major hub and involves an early departure or late arrival, it is useful to check accommodation options in advance, such as hotels near London Heathrow, hotels near Paris CDG or hotels near Frankfurt. For short city trips, it is also worth evaluating ground logistics: transfer from Madrid airport, taxi from Barcelona airport or transfer from Amsterdam Schiphol can sometimes change the actual cost of the trip no less than the difference between two air tickets.

It is also worth reading the terms of "green" fares more carefully. Some airlines already offer passengers voluntary contributions to SAF or emission offset programs. These are not the same thing. SAF means supporting the use of alternative fuel in aviation, while emission offsets are often linked to financing external climate projects. Both tools can make sense, but it is important for the traveler to understand exactly what they are paying for and whether there is transparent reporting.

Why 2050 Has Become Less Certain

The main reason is not in a single decision by airlines, but in the entire energy transition chain. For SAF to become mass-market, sustainable raw material sources, sufficient renewable electricity for e-SAF, investments in plants, logistics to airports, international certification standards, and policies that stimulate production rather than just obliging airlines to buy scarce fuel are needed.

If states introduce mandates faster than the market creates supply, prices may rise without real acceleration of decarbonization. If production is supported by grants, tax incentives, long-term contracts, and harmonized rules, SAF has a chance to move from a niche product to a large-scale energy industry. This is why the current discussion is important not only for airlines but also for tourist countries: the future availability of destinations will depend on how stable, cleaner, and more predictable aviation energy will be.

Conclusion

Fresh IATA assessments do not cancel aviation's climate goal, but make it significantly less automatic. SAF remains the most important tool for reducing emissions in flights, however, the current scale of production—only 0.8% of global jet fuel consumption—shows how large the gap is between promises and reality. For travelers, this means that the topic of sustainable fuel is gradually moving from corporate reports into the daily logic of travel: fares, fees, flight frequencies, choice of hubs, and the total cost of the route will become increasingly closely linked to the energy transition of aviation.