Flight Tickets May Become More Expensive Due to the Middle East: What the New IATA Forecast Means for Tourists

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Marta Skylar
Aviation News Editor
28.07.2026 07:47

Flight Tickets May Become More Expensive Due to the Middle East: What the New IATA Forecast Means for Tourists

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has sharply downgraded its profitability forecast for airlines in 2026: due to disruptions in the Middle East and a spike in aviation fuel prices, the industry's expected net profit has decreased by approximately half. For tourists, this does not mean an automatic price increase for every ticket, but it increases the risk of more expensive long-haul flights, more complex transfers through Gulf hubs, and less flexibility from airlines during peak periods.

The fresh financial forecast from IATA, released on June 7 during an industry summit in Rio de Janeiro, has become one of the most important signals for the travel market at the start of the summer season. The organization expects that the world's airlines in 2026 will earn around $23 billion in net profit instead of the previously forecasted $41 billion. For comparison, the profit estimate for 2025 was around $45 billion. According to IATA's forecast, the margin will drop to 2%, and profit per passenger will be approximately $4.5.

For the traveler, these figures are not important in themselves, but because of how airlines react to cost pressures. When fuel becomes more expensive and routes are lengthened due to airspace restrictions, carriers have less room for promo fares, risky frequency increases, and maintaining low prices for long periods. That is why the current forecast should be seen as a warning: flying is still possible, demand remains high, but planning trips through unstable regions requires more attention.

What Exactly Changed in the IATA Forecast

IATA attributes the downgrade in the forecast to two main factors: military disruptions in the Middle East and a sharp increase in the cost of aviation fuel. According to the association's estimate, the average price of jet fuel in 2026 could be nearly 70% higher than in 2025. Total airline fuel costs, according to this forecast, will increase from $252 billion to $350 billion, and the share of fuel in operating expenses will rise to more than 31%.

The problem is not limited to the price of a barrel of oil. For aviation, the so-called spread between crude oil and finished aviation fuel is also important. IATA notes that this gap in 2026 has become historically high. Some carriers hedge fuel and temporarily smooth out price spikes, but such insurance does not cover long-term price increases, especially if a company is forced to fly longer routes or maintain reserves due to an unstable schedule.

At the same time, the industry is not in a situation of total collapse. IATA predicts 5.1 billion passengers in 2026, a record average load factor of 84% and an increase in total revenues to $1.165 trillion. In other words, people continue to travel, planes remain full, and demand does not disappear. But for passengers, something else is important: when load factors are high and costs are rising, it is easier for airlines to pass part of the pressure onto the ticket price.

Why the Middle East Affects Routes Far Beyond the Region

The Middle East is not only a tourist destination but also one of the key transit corridors of global aviation. A significant portion of traffic between Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania passes through hubs in Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Istanbul, and other cities. When part of the airspace becomes risky or temporarily restricted, airlines are forced to redesign their route networks, spend more fuel, change flight times and maintain a larger operational buffer.

Official tourist and consular recommendations also remain cautious. The US Department of State has warned that periodic airspace closures can cause travel disruptions, and the Canadian government, in its recommendations for Jordan, notes that airspace may close with short notice and flights may be disrupted. This does not mean that all travel in the region should be canceled, but it means that tourists should account for the risk of rapid changes in conditions.

Some airlines have already demonstrated how such risks look in practice. Pegasus Airlines updated its notice regarding the cancellation of some flights on June 8-9 due to airspace restrictions in the Middle East and provided passengers with additional rights to refunds, open tickets, or free date changes on the same route. For the market, this is a telling example: even when disruptions are short, they affect schedules, connections, and passenger plans.

Where Tourists May Feel the Pressure Fastest

Long-haul routes appear to be the most vulnerable, where fuel constitutes a particularly large part of the cost. These are flights between Europe and Asia, Europe and Australia, South Asia and North America, as well as complex routes with two transfers, where any schedule change can lead to the rebooking of the next segment. If a route passes through regional hubs, the passenger should look not only at the price but also at the transfer duration, alternative flights on the same day, and ticket change rules.

For trips through the Persian Gulf, it is useful to check not only the booking page but also the current status of a specific airport. For example, before flying through Dubai Airport (DXB) or transferring in Doha, it is worth checking the schedule with the Hamad Airport (DOH) online board. For travelers flying through Turkey, it is logical to separately monitor the Istanbul Airport (IST) online board, as large hubs quickly feel the effects of rerouted traffic.

Another practical consequence is the demand for overnight stays near hubs. If a transfer is long or a flight arrives late, a backup plan can reduce stress. On routes through Qatar or the UAE, it is worth knowing in advance where to find hotels near Hamad Airport in Doha or hotels near Dubai Airport. This is not a call to book an extra night for every trip, but a useful insurance for flights with short connections or arrivals during peak periods.

Does This Mean an Inevitable Price Increase for All Tickets

No, there will be no automatic and uniform price increase for all destinations. Airfares depend on competition on a specific route, seasonality, flight load, sales currency, taxes, airport fees, and the carrier's strategy. On popular short European or domestic routes, low-cost carriers may hold the base price longer, offsetting costs with additional services. On routes with less competition or a high share of business passengers, the increase may manifest faster.

But the IATA forecast explains why cheap long-haul flights may become less predictable. If a carrier's fuel bill rises, the margin drops, and some aircraft spend more time bypassing closed zones, the company naturally becomes more cautious about offering deep discounts. Additionally, high load factors mean that the best fares are sold out faster, and the last seats on the plane are sold at a higher price.

For family vacations, this is especially noticeable. When buying not one ticket, but three or four, even a moderate increase in the average fare noticeably changes the budget. Added to this are baggage, seat selection, meals, transfers, and insurance. That is why tourists should compare not only the starting price of the ticket but the total cost of the route: sometimes a direct flight or a longer but more stable transfer may be more practical than the lowest price with a risky connection.

What Passengers Should Do Before Booking

The best strategy now is flexibility without panic. If a trip passes through the Middle East or depends on a connection at a large hub, it is desirable to choose tickets with transparent change rules, avoid overly short transfers, and check if there is an alternative flight on the same day. For long routes, it is worth separately comparing options through Istanbul, Doha, Dubai, Riyadh, Jeddah, European hubs, and Asian transfer centers.

  • Before payment, check if baggage is included in the fare and how much it will cost to add it later.
  • Do not plan important events on the day of arrival if the route has a complex transfer or passes through an unstable region.
  • Keep airline, agency, and insurance service contacts offline to have access to them without mobile internet.
  • Track flight status not only on the day of departure but also the day before, especially if the airline has already adjusted the schedule.
  • For travel with children or elderly relatives, allow more time between flights.

It is also worth paying closer attention to travel insurance. Not every policy covers delays, cancellations, missed connections, or hotel costs equally. If a route depends on several airlines or separate tickets, the risk to the passenger is higher: one carrier may not be responsible for the next segment purchased separately. In such a situation, saving on the fare sometimes turns into additional costs during the first serious disruption.

What This Means for the Travel Market

For tour operators and online agencies, the IATA forecast means a more complex pricing season. Package tours, which depend heavily on charter or block air transportation, may face additional cost pressure. Destinations that are convenient to fly to directly gain an advantage over routes with long transfers. At the same time, some traffic may shift to alternative corridors, particularly through Asian or European hubs, if they offer a more stable schedule.

For Middle Eastern airports, the situation is twofold. On one hand, the region's hubs have strong infrastructure, a large network of routes, and experience in rapid recovery after disruptions. On the other hand, they are closer to the center of current risk, so any new escalation can quickly affect connections, slot plans, and passenger trust. Tourists flying through Riyadh Airport (RUH), Jeddah Airport (JED), Amman, or Beirut should check not only the schedule but also current consular recommendations for the country of stay.

There is also a broader conclusion for the entire industry: aviation is entering a season where demand remains strong, but the margin for error is smaller. The supply of new aircraft is still limited, maintenance costs for older fleets are rising, and infrastructure constraints at airports do not disappear. If fuel shock, unstable airspace, and strikes in some countries are added to this, the cost of error for carriers and passengers increases.

Conclusion

The new IATA forecast does not cancel the summer tourist season and does not mean that travel is becoming inaccessible. On the contrary, passenger traffic continues to grow, and planes remain full. But the market is becoming less forgiving of spontaneous decisions: cheap long-haul tickets may disappear faster, transfers through unstable corridors require a time buffer, and booking change rules are becoming a real part of planning rather than a formality.

For tourists, the smartest approach in the coming months is to book earlier, read fare conditions more carefully, check flight statuses, and not build a complex route without a backup scenario. For the travel business, the signal is even more direct: the cost of air transportation is again becoming one of the main factors that will determine demand, profitability, and the choice of destinations in 2026.