AAA Predicts Record 72.2 Million Trips in the US for July 4th Week: What It Means for Travelers

The American summer season is entering its most intense period: according to a new AAA forecast, from June 27 to July 5, 2026, 72.2 million US residents will take trips of at least 50 miles from home. This is a new high for the Independence Day period, but the nature of demand is changing: car and air travel are barely growing, while buses, trains, and cruises are showing the most noticeable dynamics.

For travelers, this means more than just "more people on the road." The AAA forecast shows exactly where the biggest queues may arise, why some families are choosing shorter or closer routes, how airfares and car rentals are becoming more expensive, and why Alaska, Florida, New York, Chicago, Denver, and Boston remain among the hottest destinations in early July.

What Exactly AAA Predicts

According to AAA Newsroom from June 17, 2026, the holiday period this year covers nine days: from Saturday, June 27 to Sunday, July 5. The organization expects 72.2 million domestic leisure trips in the US, which is slightly higher than the 2025 record of 71.8 million such trips. Growth is no longer as rapid as in the first years after the pandemic recovery, but the market volume remains very large.

The largest part of the travel will be by road. AAA predicts 61.4 million car trips, meaning about 85% of all travelers during this period. This is almost the same as last year, but high fuel prices are not stopping families for whom traveling by their own car can still be cheaper than airfares, especially if several people are traveling.

Air travel also remains stable. AAA expects 5.85 million passengers on domestic flights in the US, which is only 0.2% more than in 2025. At the same time, the average price of a domestic round-trip ticket, according to AAA booking data, is about $830, and flights to popular destinations like Chicago and Denver are approximately 5% more expensive than last year.

Cruises, Trains, and Buses are Growing the Fastest

The most interesting signal in the AAA forecast concerns not planes or cars, but other modes of transport. The organization expects 4.93 million Americans to use buses, trains, or cruises during the Independence Day week. This is 5.3% more than last year and higher than the 2019 level.

AAA attributes this, in particular, to the post-COVID boom in cruises. For many tourists, a cruise is attractive not only because of the itinerary, but also because of the budget predictability: accommodation, meals, some entertainment, and several ports of call are often bundled into one package. In a period when airfares, fuel, and car rentals are becoming more expensive, such a clear cost structure becomes a strong argument.

This also explains why among the most popular domestic destinations, AAA names Seattle, Anchorage, and Fairbanks. For Alaska cruises, early July is the peak season, and Seattle often serves as the starting point for routes to Alaska. Those flying through Seattle-Tacoma Airport or planning a layover at Anchorage Airport should allow extra time for check-in, baggage, and ground transfer.

Top Destinations: Alaska, Florida, Big Cities, and Europe

In AAA's domestic ranking, Seattle took first place, followed by Orlando, Anchorage, Miami, New York, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Fairbanks, Denver, and Boston. This list clearly shows the mixed nature of demand: some tourists fly to cruise ports, some to theme parks and beaches, others choose big cities with events, fireworks, and short city-break routes.

Florida remains one of the main magnets. Orlando attracts with theme parks, Miami and Fort Lauderdale with beaches, cruise ports, and a large aviation network. For practical planning, it is useful to check information on Orlando MCO Airport, Miami MIA Airport, and Fort Lauderdale FLL Airport in advance, especially if the itinerary includes a night arrival, car rental, or boarding a cruise.

New York, Chicago, Denver, and Boston in the AAA ranking look expected: these are large aviation hubs, popular urban destinations, and starting points for trips to the region. If the trip is tied to holiday events or a short weekend, passengers should check not only the ticket, but also the actual arrival airport: for New York, these could be JFK, LaGuardia, or Newark; for Chicago, O'Hare; for Denver, DEN; and for Boston, Logan.

Among international destinations, AAA names Vancouver, Rome, Dublin, Paris, London, Calgary, Reykjavik, Amsterdam, Athens, and Barcelona. This shows that some American tourists use the long holiday period not only for domestic trips, but also for transatlantic vacations. For the aviation market, this means a heavy load on international transfers, baggage services, and border procedures in the largest hubs.

When Roads Will Be the Worst

A separate practical block of the AAA forecast is based on INRIX data. According to this, the second part of the holiday period will be the most intense on the roads, starting from Thursday, July 2. However, in some cities, particularly Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, peak congestion is expected as early as Saturday, June 27.

The worst time windows for travel, according to AAA/INRIX, often fall in the afternoon and evening. For example, July 1 is called risky from 12:00 to 21:00, July 3 from 12:00 to 19:00, and July 5 from 12:00 to 18:00. The best universal advice is simple: leave early when possible, or move the long drive to Monday or Tuesday if the itinerary and schedule allow.

For tourists who combine air travel with the car segment, this is especially important. Even if the flight arrives on time, the drive from the airport to the hotel, port, or resort area can take significantly longer than on a normal day. In cities like Orlando, Miami, Boston, New York, or Denver, it is worth checking not only the route in the navigator, but also the conditions for obtaining a rental car, the desk operating hours, the late arrival policy, and the possibility of alternative transfer.

Car Rentals are Becoming More Expensive, and the Peak Day is Already Determined

AAA also draws attention to car rentals. According to preliminary bookings from Hertz, the most intense day for picking up cars is expected to be Thursday, July 2. The highest demand is expected in Orlando, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York. At the same time, according to AAA, domestic car rentals for the holiday week in the US are approximately 10% more expensive than last year.

This has a direct impact on tourists who are used to booking a car at the last moment. In peak cities, there may be not only a higher price, but also a smaller selection of car classes, longer queues for pickup, a more difficult situation with child seats, additional drivers, or returning to a different point. If the itinerary depends on a car, the booking should be confirmed in advance and it should be checked whether the airport, terminal, and pickup point match.

Why This Is Important for the Tourism Market

The AAA forecast shows that American leisure demand is not collapsing, even when prices remain significant for households. But growth rates are slowing down, and tourist behavior is becoming more cautious. A regional release from the AAA Auto Club Group for Florida explicitly points to this logic: some travelers are choosing shorter vacations, closer destinations, more carefully comparing the cost of travel and accommodation, and looking for formats with a more predictable budget, such as cruises or all-inclusive.

For airlines, this means stable but not unlimited demand. For hotels, it is a heavy load in popular cities and near ports. For airports, it is the need for clear operation with passenger flows, baggage, and ground transport. For tourists, it is the necessity to plan not only the flight, but the entire chain: the road to the airport, parking, time for security, transfer, baggage claim, car rental, hotel check-in, or boarding a cruise.

What Travelers Should Do Before the Trip

The best strategy for the July 4th week is not to rely on usual time margins. Even if you fly this route often or know the road well, the holiday period changes the basic mathematics. It is worth checking the flight status the day before and on the day of departure, have a time reserve for the road to the airport, do not postpone car rental to the last minute, and carefully read the fare conditions, especially if the ticket is cheap, but baggage and seat selection are paid separately.

• For car trips, it is better to leave in the morning, avoid afternoon peaks, and check the car's condition before starting.
• For air travel, it is worth allowing more time at the airport, especially in popular tourist cities and large hubs.
• For cruises, it is important to arrive at the port with a margin, and not plan a "flight on the day of boarding" connection without a buffer.
• For car rentals, it is necessary to confirm the pickup point, price, insurance, deposit, and late arrival policy in advance.
• For international trips, it is necessary to separately check the passport, visa or electronic requirements, transit rules, and insurance.

Conclusion

The record AAA forecast for the Independence Day week of 2026 is a good signal for the tourism market, but not a promise of an easy road. Demand remains high, families continue to spend on travel, cruises are gaining strength, and big cities and airports are preparing for peak loads. For travelers, the main conclusion is practical: book earlier, check all segments of the route, allow more time for travel, and do not plan connections as if it were a normal week without holiday traffic.

If the trip falls between June 27 and July 5, it is worth treating it as a high season in miniature: spaces are available, flights are flying, roads are open, but a time reserve, flexibility, and careful checking of details can be the difference between a peaceful vacation and an exhausting start to the summer.