AAA Predicts Record 72.2 Million Trips in the US for July 4th Week: What it Means for Travelers

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Marta Skylar
Aviation News Editor
28.07.2026 02:08

AAA Predicts Record 72.2 Million Trips in the US for July 4th Week: What it Means for Travelers

The American summer season is entering its most intense period: AAA predicts that from June 27 to July 5, 2026, 72.2 million US residents will take trips of at least 50 miles from home. For travelers, this means not only crowded highways and airports, but also higher demand for hotels, car rentals, transfers, cruises, and popular city destinations.

The AAA forecast, published on June 17, covers a nine-day period around US Independence Day. This is important because July 4, 2026, falls on a Saturday, meaning some travelers are planning not just a short weekend, but a full vacation with two weekends at the beginning and end of the route. The organization expects the total figure to slightly exceed last year's record, but growth rates are no longer as sharp as in the first years after the recovery of tourism.

For the tourism market, this is a signal of a mature phase of demand. People continue to prioritize travel in their budget priorities, but more expensive flights, car rentals, fuel and accommodation force many to choose closer destinations, compare prices longer and book more practically. That is why the forecast should be read not as holiday statistics, but as a map of risks and opportunities for summer trips to the US.

What Exactly AAA Predicts

According to AAA's estimate, 72.2 million Americans will travel between Saturday, June 27, and Sunday, July 5. This is more than the 71.8 million in the previous year, but the demand structure is changing: car and air travel are barely growing, while other modes of transport, including cruises, buses, and trains, are adding the fastest.

The largest share belongs to cars. AAA expects 61.4 million car trips, which is approximately 85% of all holiday trips. This is almost the same as last year, but the figure remains enormous. Even with high fuel prices, the car for family trips often remains a cheaper and more flexible option than air tickets for several passengers.

Air travel also remains at a high level. AAA predicts 5.85 million domestic air passengers within the holiday week, which is only 0.2% more than last year. According to the organization, tickets for domestic flights to popular destinations, including Chicago and Denver, have increased in price by an average of about 5%, and the average price of a domestic round-trip ticket is around 830 dollars.

The "others" transport segment stands out separately. AAA expects 4.93 million trips by bus, train, and cruise, which is 5.3% more than last year. This is also higher than the 2019 level. For travelers, the cruise factor will be particularly noticeable: Alaska is in high season, and the cruise format attracts travelers with predictable pricing, included meals and several route points in one trip.

Why This News is Important for Travelers, Not Just for the US

At first glance, the forecast concerns domestic American trips. But its consequences are broader. The US remains one of the key tourism markets in the world, and the July 4th period affects the load of airports, hotels, rental companies, cruise ports, and urban transport in destinations that also receive foreign tourists.

The U.S. Travel Association in its spring 2026 forecast noted that domestic tourism provides the main part of tourism spending in the US, and overall travel spending is expected to remain huge even under the pressure of inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The organization also expects a gradual recovery of international inbound tourism, particularly thanks to major events. This means that foreign guests planning trips to the US in late June or early July will compete for the same air resources, hotels, and ground logistics as domestic travelers.

For Ukrainian readers, the practical conclusion is simple: if the route passes through the US, Canada, or major American hubs, it is better not to rely on "normal" transfer times or standard hotel availability. The holiday week can change prices and queues even in cities that are not the final destination of the trip.

Where Travelers are Going

AAA's list of popular destinations shows that demand is distributed among large cities, cruise gateways, beach regions, and destinations with mass holiday events. Among domestic destinations, Seattle, Orlando, Anchorage, Miami, New York, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Fairbanks, Denver, and Boston stand out. International demand is concentrated around Vancouver, Rome, Dublin, Paris, London, Calgary, Reykjavik, Amsterdam, Athens, and Barcelona.

This combination says a lot about the nature of the season. Seattle, Anchorage, and Fairbanks are linked to the peak of Alaska cruises. Orlando and Florida benefit from theme parks, beaches, and cruise ports. New York, Chicago, and Boston attract with holiday events, fireworks, and urban tourism. Denver remains a strong destination for mountain routes and summer active recreation.

If the trip begins or ends through major airports, it is worth checking the logistics in advance. For routes through New York, the JFK airport page may be useful, and for early departures or late arrivals, it is worth separately evaluating hotels near JFK. For Florida, the Orlando MCO airport, transfers from MCO, and car rental at Orlando airport pages will be practical. For routes through the Western US and Alaska, it is worth looking at information about Seattle-Tacoma airport and Anchorage ANC airport in advance.

Air Passengers Should Allow More Time

The aviation part of the forecast does not show a sharp jump, but 5.85 million domestic passengers over nine days still create a very dense schedule. In large hubs, the load can be intensified by weather, local events, repair work, lack of parking spaces, and queues at security screening.

The US Department of Transportation in the Air Travel Consumer Report reminds that official consumer statistics cover flight delays, baggage problems, wheelchairs, oversales, and passenger complaints. For the traveler, this means: on peak days, it is important not only to buy a ticket, but also to check how a specific carrier and airport are operating, whether there is a time buffer between flights, what the compensation rules are, and what to do in case of a schedule change.

The FAA in its summer materials also points out that the season is accompanied by a larger number of aircraft in the sky, frequent bad weather, and active use of airspace. This is not a reason to give up the trip, but a reason to avoid too short connections and plan arrival at the airport with a larger margin, especially if the flight departs on Friday, Sunday, or the day before the holiday.

Special attention should be paid to Washington. The official Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport page warns of possible flight suspensions during flyovers, fireworks, and air shows associated with the America 250 summer events. As of June 24, the site already noted periodic delays for DCA on the evening of June 24, expected impacts on June 25, and the need to monitor updates for July 3 and 4. Passengers flying through the Washington region should check flight status directly with the airline.

Car Rental and Hotels Become Critical Planning Elements

Since most holiday trips in the US take place by car, the demand for car rentals and parking can be as important as the air ticket. AAA refers to Hertz data, according to which the most active day for picking up a rental car is expected to be Thursday, July 2. The highest demand based on previous bookings is predicted in Orlando, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York.

For the tourist, this means several practical things. First, it is better to book a rental car in advance, especially if a family car, minivan, or car with child seats is needed. Second, it is worth carefully checking the operating hours of the rental point, as a flight delay can create problems for night pickup. Third, it is important to calculate the full cost: insurance, deposit, toll roads, hotel parking, fuel, and possible one-way rental fees.

On popular destinations, confirmed service pages can help with preliminary planning. For Colorado, it is worth checking Denver airport DEN and car rental in DEN. For Boston, Logan BOS airport, hotels near BOS, and transfers from Boston airport will be useful. For Los Angeles, it is worth separately planning LAX airport and transfers from LAX, because road traffic on holiday days can quickly "eat up" the time buffer.

Cruises and Trains Grow Faster Than Air Travel

The most interesting structural shift in the AAA forecast is the faster growth of non-car and non-air travel methods. Buses, trains, and cruises together are expected to show a 5.3% increase. This does not mean they are replacing aviation, but demonstrates how travelers are seeking more predictable and comprehensive formats.

Cruise demand is particularly noticeable in Alaska. For passengers, this means high occupancy not only of the ships, but also of related links: flights to Seattle or Anchorage, hotels for one night before boarding, transfers to the port, baggage logistics, and insurance. If the route includes a cruise, it is better to arrive in the departure city at least the day before, rather than on the day of boarding.

Trains and buses can also be a useful alternative for regional routes, but during the holiday week, they should not be left "for later." Increased demand means that cheaper fares and convenient time slots may disappear faster than usual.

What to Check Before the Trip

For most tourists, the main risk of this holiday week is not one big ban or sudden closure, but the accumulation of small delays. Full parking at the airport, longer queues at security, a traffic jam, more expensive car rental, late check-in at the hotel, or a flight shift can affect the entire route.

  • Check flight status on the day of departure and before leaving for the airport.
  • Avoid too short connections in large US hubs.
  • Book car rental, airport hotel, and transfer in advance if arrival is in the evening or night.
  • Plan road departures for the morning, when possible: according to INRIX data in the AAA forecast, the most difficult intervals often fall on daytime and afternoon hours.
  • Check baggage rules, TSA documents, and ID requirements if flying a domestic flight in the US.
  • For routes through Washington, monitor DCA and airline notifications regarding America 250 events.

Conclusion

The AAA forecast of 72.2 million trips shows that the American tourism market remains extremely active, even if growth is slowing down. For travelers, this is not news about "chaos," but a practical warning: the period from June 27 to July 5, 2026, requires earlier booking, more careful planning of connections, and a realistic time buffer.

The heaviest load will be felt on car routes, popular cities, cruise gateways, airports in Florida, New York, Chicago, Boston, Denver, Seattle, and Alaska. But even if the final destination of the trip is different, the holiday week in the US can affect prices, availability, and the rhythm of the entire trip. Therefore, the best strategy is not to wait until the last moment, check official sources, and have a backup option for ground logistics.