International Air Travel to the USA Dipped in May: What New NTTO Data Shows

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Marta Skylar
Aviation News Editor
28.07.2026 05:45

International Air Travel to the USA Dipped in May: What New NTTO Data Shows

Lead. Fresh statistics from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) of the USA, released in mid-June, showed a mixed picture before the peak of the summer season: total international air traffic to and from the USA in May 2026 decreased by 1.2% compared to May 2025, and overseas visits to the USA, excluding Canada and Mexico, fell by 6.5%. For tourists, this does not mean that travel to the USA has become mass-unavailable, but the signal is important: demand remains uneven, prices and schedules may vary depending on the market, and routes through major hubs require more careful planning.

What Exactly NTTO Released

According to NTTO data, in May 2026, international air passenger transport to and from the United States totaled 22.7 million passenger boardings. This is 1.2% less than in May 2025, but still 103.3% of the May 2019 level. In other words, the US aviation market has not returned to the state of pandemic collapse: in absolute volume, it is already higher than the pre-crisis base. However, the structure of this recovery has become less even.

The most sensitive indicator for the tourism business is the arrival of foreign visitors. In May, air arrivals of non-US citizens from abroad were 4.5 million, which is 4.5% less than a year earlier, and only 82.4% of May 2019. Even more pronounced are overseas visits, meaning arrivals from markets outside Canada and Mexico: 2.8 million in May, minus 6.5% year-on-year. For the first five months of 2026, overseas visits to the USA were 4.8% lower than for the same period in 2025.

These figures are important not only for American hotels, airports, and city tourism offices. They show how demand for long-haul trips changes, how passengers behave after the increase in travel costs, and how geopolitical risks, visa procedures, fuel prices, and the schedule of major events affect actual bookings.

Why the Decline Does Not Mean a Market Collapse

At first glance, a 1.2% decrease may seem small. And indeed, total US air traffic remains higher than the pre-pandemic level. But for tourism, it is not only the number of passengers in planes that is important, but who exactly is flying, from which markets, for what duration, and with what expenses at the destination.

The USA has two different flows. The first is outbound, meaning Americans flying abroad. In May 2026, US citizens made 6.8 million air departures to foreign destinations. This is only 0.5% less than a year earlier, but 22.7% higher than the May 2019 level. In other words, American demand for international vacations, family trips, and business travel remains strong.

The second flow is inbound, meaning foreign tourists and visitors arriving in the USA. This is where recovery is going slower. For hotels, museums, restaurants, city tours, car rentals, transfers, and retail trade, this has practical significance: one additional transit passenger does not equal one tourist who spends a week in the country and spends money in the city.

Therefore, May data should be read not as news of a crisis, but as a warning about an uneven season. The USA remains a large and attractive destination, but competition for the international tourist is intensifying, and trip planning is becoming more cautious.

Which Regions and Markets Look Most Important

In May, the largest passenger flows between the USA and individual countries were provided by Mexico, Canada, the UK, Germany, and Japan. Mexico provided about 3 million passengers, but this is 6.7% less than a year earlier. Canada — 2.5 million, minus 0.7%. The UK — 1.9 million, minus 2.3%. Germany showed a more noticeable drop — 966 thousand passengers and minus 7.4%. Japan, conversely, grew by 2.7% to 930 thousand.

By region, the picture is even more varied. Europe provided 7.5 million passengers between the USA and the region: this is almost at the level of last year, plus 0.2%, and 5.4% higher than May 2019. South and Central America together with the Caribbean grew by 2.2% year-on-year and by 12.8% compared to 2019. Asia showed 2.8 million passengers, plus 3.9% compared to 2025, but still minus 15.9% compared to 2019.

The weakest in May statistics looks like the Middle East: 937 thousand passengers, minus 23.1% year-on-year, although this is still 2.6% higher than the 2019 level. This result aligns well with the broader context of the aviation market: IATA in its April analysis already recorded a global reduction in passenger traffic by 3.4% year-on-year and a particularly strong hit to Middle Eastern carriers against the backdrop of regional air restrictions and high fuel costs.

Which Airports Were at the Center of May Traffic

The largest international hub of the USA in May remained New York JFK: according to NTTO data, about 2.9 million international passengers passed through it. For travelers planning transatlantic or long-haul routes, it is worth checking JFK airport information and the JFK online board in advance, especially if the trip includes a layover, a night arrival, or a change of terminals.

Second was Miami Airport (MIA) with 2.1 million international passengers. Its role is logical: Miami remains a key bridge between the USA, the Caribbean, and Latin America, as well as a major destination for cruise and beach tourism. For passengers, this means increased pressure on border control, baggage, transfers, and car rentals on peak days.

Los Angeles LAX had about 2 million international passengers. On the West Coast, this is the main hub for Asia, Oceania, Mexico, and part of the transcontinental routes. If the route passes through LAX airport, especially with a long international layover, it is advisable to allow extra time for control, baggage, and travel between terminals.

Chicago O'Hare and San Francisco SFO showed approximately 1.4 million international passengers each. For Chicago, this is important against the backdrop of the strengthening summer schedule and demand for layovers via the Midwest; for San Francisco — due to the recovery of Asian and Pacific traffic. Practically, this means that passengers should check not only the fare, but also the actual stability of the connection: ORD and SFO can be convenient, but a short layover on a peak day often eats up all the savings.

What This Means for Tourists

For travelers, the main conclusion is simple: international trips to the USA in 2026 remain active, but they need to be planned more precisely. If the total flow has decreased slightly, this does not guarantee cheap tickets. Airlines may reduce or redirect capacity on weaker routes, and on strong routes, conversely, maintain high fares due to stable demand.

Tourists should pay attention to several things:

  • Ticket flexibility. If the route passes through a crowded international hub or a region with a risk of schedule changes, it is better to check the terms of exchange, refund, and missed connection before payment.
  • Layover time. For the first entry into the USA, one should not plan minimum connections. Immigration control, baggage, and re-checking suitcases may take more time than an optimistic schedule shows.
  • Arrival airport. JFK, MIA, LAX, ORD, and SFO have different logistics to the city, different terminals, and different delay profiles. Before booking, it is useful to evaluate not only the ticket price, but also the costs for a hotel near the airport, transfer, or car rental.
  • Visa and border formalities. Demand statistics do not change entry rules. Tourists need to separately check the visa, ESTA, passport validity, purpose of trip, insurance, and transit rules.

Those flying to the USA for events with fixed dates: matches, cruises, conferences, concerts, or short city-break trips should be especially careful. If arrival is planned on the day of the event, even one failure in a hub can ruin the entire trip.

What This Means for the Tourism Market

For the tourism business, May NTTO data is a signal that growth cannot be taken as automatic. The government forecast by NTTO predicts an increase in international arrivals to the USA in 2026 to 70.5 million and further growth to 85.2 million by 2030. On paper, this is a positive trajectory. But actual monthly data show that the road to such a forecast may be uneven.

Cities that depend on overseas tourists must work more carefully with the trip price, air accessibility, visa barriers, security messages, and the perception of the USA as a welcoming destination. For hotels, this means not only fighting for a high ADR on peak dates, but also the need to more accurately segment demand: a domestic tourist, a Canadian or Mexican visitor, and a long-haul tourist from Europe or Asia behave differently.

Airlines and airports these data suggest where demand is recovering and where the passenger is still cautious. For example, the year-on-year growth of Asia looks positive, but the lag behind 2019 by 15.9% shows that full return is not yet complete. The stability of Europe provides a basis for the summer season, but does not guarantee growth in all cities. And the strong drop in Middle Eastern traffic reminds that airspace, security, and geopolitics quickly affect tourist routes.

How to Read These Figures Without Exaggeration

It is important not to make too loud conclusions from a single month. May is a transition period between spring trips and the summer peak. Part of the demand may have shifted to June or July, part to domestic travel, part to other regions of the world. Also, air boarding statistics do not show the entire tourist experience: they do not directly answer questions about hotel prices, tourist spending, duration of stay, or trip satisfaction.

However, this is exactly why NTTO data is useful. They provide an early indicator of that how much real traffic matches seasonal expectations. If the total flow to and from the USA remains above 2019, but overseas visits dip, the market is dealing not with a lack of planes as such, but with a problem of quality and structure of demand. For the traveler, this translates into practical advice: do not rely only on general aviation market optimism, but check the specific route, specific airport, and specific ticket conditions.

Conclusion

May NTTO data showed that international air travel to and from the USA in 2026 remains large-scale, but no longer looks like uniform post-pandemic growth. Total traffic is higher than the 2019 level, Americans are actively flying abroad, however, foreign overseas visits to the USA noticeably lag behind last year and the pre-crisis base.

For tourists, this means more attention to layovers, entry rules, trip cost, and the logistics of large hubs. For the market — the need to fight for the international guest not only with additional flights, but also with clear communication, competitive pricing, reliable routes, and a simpler arrival experience. Such details will determine whether the summer of 2026 for the USA will be a season of true recovery or just another period of uneven demand.