US Hotels Received a Better Forecast for 2026: What It Means for Tourists and Trip Prices

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Marta Skylar
Aviation News Editor
03.06.2026 17:59

US Hotels Received a Better Forecast for 2026: What It Means for Tourists and Trip Prices

The US hotel market is entering the second half of 2026 with a more cautious but noticeably better forecast than previously expected. CoStar and Tourism Economics have raised the growth estimate for revenue per available room, or RevPAR, for US hotels in 2026 to 2.8%. For travelers, this does not necessarily mean a sharp jump in prices across the country, but a higher likelihood of more expensive rooms in large cities, near airports, and in locations where demand is supported by events, business trips, and international tourism.

The new forecast is important not only for investors and hotel owners. It shows how the overnight stay price is formed for tourists planning trips to the USA in summer, autumn, and during major sporting events. When analysts raise expectations for RevPAR, it usually means that the market sees stronger demand, better occupancy, higher average rates, or a combination of these factors. For passengers flying through major hubs like JFK in New York, LAX in Los Angeles, Miami Airport, Las Vegas, Atlanta or Chicago O’Hare, this can be a direct signal to book accommodation in advance, especially if the itinerary is tied to a specific date.

What Exactly Changed in the Forecast

CoStar and Tourism Economics presented an updated estimate during the NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum. Compared to the previous forecast, expectations for the average daily rate and RevPAR were raised: analysts now predict a more noticeable growth in revenue per available room in 2026. Company reports also emphasize that demand in the first months of the year proved to be more resilient than expected, and in the first four months, the market received over 8 million additional realized room-nights compared to the previous year.

RevPAR is one of the key indicators of the hotel industry. It combines two elements: the average price of a sold room and the occupancy level. If a hotel sells more rooms or can raise the rate without losing demand, RevPAR increases. This is why this indicator well reflects the real balance of power between tourists, business travelers, event organizers, and hoteliers. For the consumer, it is not a direct "price tag," but it helps to understand whether it will be easier to find a cheap room.

The forecast update does not mean that all US hotels will become more expensive equally. The American market is very heterogeneous: New York, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco operate on different event calendars, different demand structures, and different amounts of new hotel rooms. But the general signal is clear: after a period of caution, the US hotel sector has more reasons to count on stable revenues in 2026.

Why the Forecast Improved

One of the factors was stronger actual demand at the beginning of the year. According to CoStar, in the first quarter, the US hotel sector showed a record RevPAR level for this period, and demand grew despite high household expenses, caution among international tourists, and competition from short-term rentals. An important signal was also that the group segment, meaning conferences, corporate events, exhibitions, and events, recovered better than expected.

For large cities, this is especially significant. When conferences and group bookings return, they not only fill hotels on weekdays, but also pull up prices for tourists arriving on the same dates. This is why a traveler might suddenly see that a night in a regular area of Chicago, Atlanta, or Las Vegas costs much more than a week earlier or later. This is not always related to the tourist season in the classical sense; sometimes the main driver is an exhibition, a sporting event, or a large corporate convention.

The second factor is slower growth in supply. Analysts have lowered expectations for the growth of hotel supply in 2026, which means less pressure from new rooms on rates. If demand grows and fewer new hotels open, the market gets more room to increase prices. This is especially noticeable in cities where construction is expensive, permits are complex, and quality room stock near airports and event centers fills up quickly.

The Role of FIFA World Cup 2026 and Major Events

The forecast also takes into account the effect of major events, particularly the FIFA World Cup 2026, which takes place in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. For American host cities, this does not necessarily mean a uniform hotel boom for the entire year, but matches, fan zones, team movements, media accreditations, and fan flows create peak dates when prices can quickly detach from the average level.

For tourists, this has a practical consequence: if a trip to the USA coincides with matches, large concerts, international conferences, or festivals, it is worth checking not only flight tickets, but also the city calendar. A room near the airport may be more expensive not because that specific airport became more popular, but because it is a convenient base for fans, business guests, or passengers with early transfers. For short stops, it is useful to separately check hotels near JFK, hotels near LAX, hotels near MIA, hotels near LAS, hotels near ORD and hotels near ATL, rather than just accommodation in the city center.

What This Means for International Tourists

For foreign travelers, the forecast has two sides. On one hand, more stable hotel demand confirms that the USA remains one of the main destinations for business and leisure trips. On the other hand, higher expectations for hotel revenues may mean fewer spontaneous discounts in popular cities. If previously some tourists hoped to find a favorable rate closer to the travel date, in 2026 such a strategy becomes riskier for peak periods.

Especially careful should be those planning combined itineraries: for example, New York plus Miami, Los Angeles plus Las Vegas, Chicago plus a domestic flight to the West Coast. In such trips, the hotel budget may change non-linearly. One relatively affordable segment of the itinerary may be offset by a significantly more expensive stay in a city where a major event or limited room supply falls on those dates.

It is also important to consider that airport hotels often behave differently than city hotels. They depend on flight schedules, transfers, crews, business trips, and passengers who avoid the risk of a morning transfer from the center. If the aviation market is active and schedules are tight, demand for such hotels can grow even when there are still available options in the city center. Before an overnight transfer or an early flight, it is worth checking flight status via online boards, for example for JFK, LAX, MIA or ORD.

Does This Mean All Trips to the USA Will Become More Expensive

No. The increase in the RevPAR forecast should not be read as an automatic price increase for every room in every city. It rather indicates that hotels are in a better position than previously expected. In some destinations, prices may remain moderate due to competition, new supply, or weaker local demand. In others, conversely, even a small increase in demand can quickly raise rates if there are few vacant rooms.

For tourists, the best tactic is not to panic, but to plan more accurately. It is worth comparing several areas, looking at cancellation terms, checking the event calendar, and not limiting oneself to only the most famous hotel zones. In large agglomerations, it is sometimes more profitable to stay closer to the airport or a transport hub if the trip is short and the main goal is a transfer, a business meeting, or an early flight. But for a long city vacation, the savings on a room may disappear due to time and transport costs.

What to Look for When Booking

  • Event Dates. Matches, conferences, concerts, and exhibitions can raise prices more strongly than seasonality.
  • Rate Flexibility. If plans depend on a visa, transfer, or event tickets, it is better to evaluate the option with free cancellation.
  • Accommodation Area. A cheaper room far from the itinerary is not always profitable if you add transfers, parking, or lost time.
  • Airport Hotels. For overnight transfers and early flights, they can be more practical, even if the base rate is slightly higher.
  • Price Dynamics. If the price for the required dates is already high, check adjacent days: sometimes a difference of one night sharply changes the budget.

Conclusion

The improved forecast from CoStar and Tourism Economics for US hotels in 2026 shows that tourist and business demand remains strong enough to support prices even in an ambiguous economic environment. For the market, this is a good signal: hotels gain more confidence, and cities gain more chances for stable revenues from travel. For tourists, this is a reminder that accommodation in the USA in 2026 should be planned as carefully as flight tickets.

The greatest risk of overpaying will occur not everywhere, but on specific dates and in specific cities. Where aviation flow, events, international tourism, and limited room supply coincide, the hotel budget can grow quickly. Therefore, the main advice is simple: check the calendar, book key nights in advance, and do not evaluate the cost of a trip to the USA solely by the price of the flight ticket.