Air Tourism in Europe Could Boost Rents: What the New T&E Report Shows

Lead. A new study by Transport & Environment, prepared by the New Economics Foundation and published on June 29, 2026, adds another important dimension to the discussion on overtourism in Europe: the growth of air traffic can increase pressure on housing in popular destinations. The authors estimate that in certain tourism-dependent economies, average annual rent could increase by hundreds of euros between 2026 and 2031 due to the influx of tourists arriving by air. For travelers, this does not mean that trips to Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, or Ireland should be abandoned. But it means that European cities and islands will increasingly combine the development of air connectivity with restrictions on short-term rentals, tourist apartments, cruise traffic, bus groups, and peak seasonal load.

What Happened

On June 29, Transport & Environment published a press release and briefing on the economics of air transport in European tourism. At the center of the material is the issue of the fair distribution of costs and benefits from tourism growth. The organization claims that the current model, in which more and more guests fly into already overcrowded regions, does not always bring proportional benefit to local residents. On the contrary, in some places, it can intensify competition for housing, encourage investors to convert apartments into the tourist segment, and increase costs for lower-income households.

According to the study's estimate, the largest absolute increase in average annual rent among the economies considered may occur in Ireland - up to 250 euros per year in the 2026-2031 period. In relative terms, the authors highlight the strongest effect for Greece, Portugal, and Spain, where the projected increase is approximately 160-220 euros. It is important to note that this is not an official government forecast and not a ready-made decision on new taxes or restrictions. It is a model conclusion by researchers on how the growth of international tourist arrivals, particularly aviation, can affect the rental market.

Why Air Traffic is Linked to Housing

The connection between flights and rent is not always obvious to a tourist who is simply looking for a ticket and a hotel. However, for cities, it is very practical. A new flight or an increase in flight frequency makes a destination more accessible, increases the number of short weekend trips, and supports demand for apartments near historical centers, beaches, and transport hubs. If the supply of long-term housing is limited, some apartments may shift to short-term rentals because they bring the owner higher income during the high season. This is why the tourism boom often becomes a political issue, rather than just a topic for aviation statistics.

The study specifically mentions regions where local protests against overtourism have already become part of the summer agenda: the Balearic Islands, Crete, Madeira, and other popular destinations. A common feature of such territories is a high number of foreign arrivals per inhabitant and a large role of air transport. This does not make every tourist a problem. But when the tourist season is concentrated in a few months, and air capacity and short-term rentals grow faster than housing and urban infrastructure, local communities begin to demand a different balance.

European Tourism Recovered, but the Load Became Uneven

The context for this report is clear: European tourism returned to growth after the pandemic slump. UN Tourism recorded a further increase in international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2026, despite geopolitical uncertainty and disruptions in air connectivity. The European Travel Commission also reported steady demand for Europe at the beginning of the year, and Eurostat showed an increase in overnight stays in short-term accommodation booked through large online platforms.

For the tourist, this has two sides. On one hand, a wider route network, more flights, and competition between carriers create choice. For example, when planning a flight to Spain, travelers can compare options via Barcelona Airport (BCN), Madrid-Barajas (MAD), or Palma de Mallorca (PMI). On the other hand, these destinations are most often faced with seasonal overcrowding: more expensive hotels, more difficult car rentals, queues, stricter rules for tourist apartments, and increased attention to guest behavior.

What is Changing for Popular Destinations

The most likely consequence for the tourism market is not an instantaneous reduction in flights, but more active demand regulation. Cities may limit new licenses for short-term rentals, introduce or increase tourist taxes, strengthen rules for large groups, review cruise limits, shift promotion from peak summer to the off-season, or direct flows to less crowded areas. This is already visible in discussions around Barcelona, Lisbon, Athens, Greek islands, Italian cities of art, and Atlantic resorts.

For Portugal and Greece, not only air tickets but also local logistics remain important. A tourist flying via Lisbon Airport (LIS) should check in advance where the accommodation is located, how to get from the airport, whether short-term rental rules are changing in a specific area, and whether there is a time buffer on the day of departure. For Greece, similar logic applies via Athens Airport (ATH) and island gateways like Heraklion (HER), where summer demand depends particularly on air transport, package tours, and seasonal employment.

Why This is Important Not Only for Local Residents

At first glance, rising rents are an internal problem for cities. But tourists feel it through the price of the entire trip. When short-term accommodation becomes more expensive or is restricted, part of the demand shifts to hotels. When tourism workers find it harder to live near their workplace, service can become more expensive or less stable. When local authorities react to protests, rules for tourists can change faster than a trip is planned: from new fees to restrictions on parties, excursion groups, or vehicle entry into historical quarters.

That is why the T&E report should be read as a signal for the next stage of European tourism. The question is no longer just whether there are enough air tickets and hotel rooms. The question is whether a destination can accept more guests without deteriorating the quality of life for residents and without a sharp increase in the cost of basic services. If the answer is negative, authorities will seek containment tools, and businesses will move to more expensive, controlled, or seasonally distributed models.

What Tourists Should Check Before Booking

For travelers, the main practical advice is not to limit planning to searching for the cheapest flight. In overcrowded destinations, the total cost of the trip is often determined by accommodation, transfer, booking flexibility, and local rules. Before paying, it is worth checking if the chosen accommodation operates legally, if there are clear cancellation terms, whether the trip falls on the peak of local holidays or protests, whether it is convenient to get to the airport on the day of departure, and if there is an alternative in case of flight delay.

• For cities with high demand, book accommodation early, but avoid options without a transparent address, license, or refund rules.
• Compare not only the air ticket but also the total cost: accommodation, baggage, night transfer, city taxes, car rental, and insurance.
• In the peak season, check the airport online board before leaving, for example for Barcelona (BCN), Lisbon (LIS), Athens (ATH), or Dublin (DUB).
• If planning a car, check not only the rental price but also parking rules, environmental zones, deposit, and the operating hours of the pickup point.
• For short city break trips, consider the off-season or less crowded areas where tourist demand does not put as much pressure on local housing.

What This Means for Airlines and Airports

For the aviation market, the report raises an uncomfortable question: can new flights be evaluated solely through passenger traffic, jobs, and airport revenues. T&E believes that standard economic assessments often ignore side costs - pressure on rent, overloading of urban infrastructure, displacement of local residents, and climate consequences. The organization also criticizes large airport expansion plans in countries that are already facing sharp discussions about overtourism.

This does not mean that airports will stop investing tomorrow. On the contrary, many hubs continue modernization because travel demand is growing, and infrastructure must meet safety and quality requirements. But public pressure may change the argumentation for such projects. Expansion will more and more often have to be explained not only by economics, but also by how it fits into housing policy, climate goals, railway alternatives, seasonality management, and the protection of the quality of life in tourist cities.

Conclusion

The new T&E report is not a warning about the closing of Europe to tourists. It is rather a reminder that cheap and frequent flights have consequences beyond the airport. If air tourism concentrates more and more guests in cities and regions where housing is already expensive, tourism policy becomes part of housing, transport, and climate policy. For travelers, this means a simple change in approach: plan the trip not only by the price of the ticket, but taking into account accommodation rules, seasonal load, local transport, booking flexibility, and the impact of one's own route on the destination. These factors will increasingly determine how comfortable, ethical, and predictable a trip to Europe will be.

Sources and context: press release and briefing by Transport & Environment from June 29, 2026, Eurostat statistics on short-term rentals via online platforms, UN Tourism data on international tourist arrivals and the European Travel Commission review of European demand at the beginning of 2026.