Inbound Tourism to the USA Dipped Again in May: What Fresh NTTO Data Shows

Fresh statistics from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) have shown a mixed picture for the American tourism market: overall international air traffic in May 2026 remained higher than pre-pandemic levels, but the flow of foreign guests to the USA has decreased again. For travelers, this means not only a change in prices and flight availability, but also an important signal about how unstable the recovery of demand for trips to the USA is before the peak summer season.

What Happened

According to NTTO data, international air travel to and from the United States in May 2026 amounted to 22.7 million passenger boardings. This is 1.2% less than in May 2025, but at the same time 103.3% of the May 2019 level. At first glance, this looks like an almost complete recovery of international air connections. However, the details show a weaker spot: not all passenger flows are equally beneficial for USA inbound tourism.

The key indicator for hotels, cities, tour operators, museums, restaurants, and transport companies is not just the number of passengers on international flights, but specifically the number of foreign guests arriving in the country. And here the figures are worse: arrivals of non-US citizens by air from other countries in May reached 4.5 million, which is 4.5% less than a year earlier. Separately, NTTO highlights overseas visitor arrivals, meaning arrivals from countries outside Canada and Mexico: they amounted to 2.8 million and fell by 6.5% year-on-year.

This indicator is particularly important because long-haul tourists usually spend more nights in the USA, combine several cities more often, and spend more on accommodation, domestic flights, excursions, and shopping. Therefore, the decline in overseas arrivals, even with overall high air traffic, can be painfully felt at the level of specific destinations.

Why This Is Important Right Now

The May statistics were released at a time when American tourism is counting on a strong summer 2026. The official NTTO forecast expects growth in overall international visitation to the USA between 2026-2030, and the U.S. Travel Association in its spring forecast indicated that part of the demand should be supported by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. But fresh May figures remind us: major events themselves do not guarantee a uniform return of foreign tourists.

In 2025, according to the U.S. Travel forecast context, international inbound visits to the USA decreased by 5.5% to 68.3 million, and a return to 2019 levels is not expected before 2029. That is, the May dip cannot be attributed to just one weak month. It fits into a broader period of uneven recovery, where domestic American demand remains relatively strong, while international entry depends on visa conditions, geopolitics, flight costs, exchange rates, and tourists' perception of the USA as a destination.

For the market, this creates a double effect. Airlines see that international routes overall have not failed, but tourist cities do not always receive the same volume of foreign guests they counted on. Hotels may have occupancy thanks to domestic trips or business demand, but they lose a portion of high-spending guests from Europe and other long-haul markets.

European Demand Remains a Weak Spot

Skift, analyzing the same federal data, noted that Europe plays a disproportionately large role in the current decline of overseas tourism to the USA. Western Europe forms a significant share of the high-spending foreign tourist flow, so its cooling is noticeable not only in general statistics but also in the revenues of destinations that are used to working with the European audience.

At the same time, the overall passenger flow between the USA and Europe in May does not look catastrophic: NTTO indicates 7.5 million passengers between the USA and European countries, which is 0.2% more than a year earlier and 5.4% above the May 2019 level. But these are air passengers in both directions, not a net inflow of foreign tourists to the USA. In this difference lies the main plot: planes may be full, but the balance between entry and exit is shifting.

For Ukrainian and European travelers planning trips to the USA via major hubs, this means that flight availability may remain good, but prices and travel conditions depend on the specific route. For example, for routes via London Heathrow or Paris Charles de Gaulle, it is worth checking not only the fare but also connections, baggage conditions, possible schedule changes, and transit requirements.

Where Traffic is Holding Up Better and Where it Dipped More

In May, the largest country markets for international air connections with the USA were Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. Mexico provided about 3 million passengers, but this is 6.7% less than a year ago. Canada almost held its ground with 2.5 million passengers and a 0.7% dip. The United Kingdom had 1.9 million passengers and a 2.3% decrease, Germany had 966 thousand and a 7.4% fall. In contrast, Japan with 930 thousand passengers showed growth of 2.7%.

The regional picture is also mixed. South and Central America together with the Caribbean grew by 2.2% to 5.4 million passengers. Asia added 3.9% to 2.8 million, although it still remains 15.9% below the May 2019 level. The Middle East dipped the most: 937 thousand passengers and minus 23.1% year-on-year. This aligns well with the broader context of 2026, where regional conflicts, detour routes, and more expensive jet fuel affect transit flows.

For tourists, the practical conclusion is simple: destinations with good statistics are not necessarily cheaper, and destinations with a dip are not always more convenient. When airlines adjust capacity, they may keep prices high on popular dates and simultaneously offer more favorable fares on routes where demand lags behind expectations. Therefore, planning a trip to the USA in 2026 should start not with one city, but with a comparison of several entry hubs.

Which Airports Remain the Main Gateways

NTTO names the most active American airports for international transport in May as New York JFK, Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago O'Hare, and San Francisco. About 2.9 million international passengers passed through New York JFK airport, 2.1 million through Miami airport, 2 million through Los Angeles LAX airport, and approximately 1.4 million each through Chicago O'Hare and San Francisco SFO.

These hubs are important not only as arrival points. They determine how tourists are distributed further across the country: some fly domestic flights, some take cars, some stay for a few days in the arrival city. That is why weaker inbound tourism can affect a whole chain of services: hotels near terminals, transfers, car rentals, city tours, restaurants, and even the load of local airlines.

Passengers flying through major hubs should check flight statuses in advance. For this, the online board pages of JFK, MIA, LAX, ORD, and SFO are useful. If the arrival is late or the connection is long, it makes sense to look at hotels near JFK, hotels near MIA, or hotels near LAX in advance.

What This Means for Travelers

For foreign tourists, a dip in the inbound flow to the USA does not mean an automatic cheapening of the trip. The market works more complexly. On popular dates and routes to New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or Chicago, prices may remain high due to domestic demand, events, cruise departures, conferences, and vacation seasons. But on certain routes, especially with flexible dates, weaker international demand may open up better fare or hotel options.

The most important thing for planning is not to delay documents. Even if a flight ticket seems a bargain, a trip to the USA depends on the visa, ESTA for eligible citizens, a correct passport, connections, and the ability to confirm the purpose of the trip at the border. For tourists from countries where visa slots are limited or interviews must be booked in advance, these factors weigh no less than the ticket price.

It is also worth calculating the total cost of the route. In the USA, a large part of the budget goes not only to the flight and hotel, but also to the airport transfer, internal logistics, baggage, insurance, car rental, parking, and food. For trips through California or Florida, car rental in LAX or car rental in MIA may be useful, but in New York, a transfer or taxi from JFK is often more practical.

What This Means for the Tourism Market

For American destinations, the May statistics are a warning that relying solely on large-scale events and general air capacity may be insufficient. If long-haul tourists postpone trips, choose other countries, or face visa barriers, cities may under-receive exactly that demand that brings high spending per trip.

Hotels and tourism offices will have to work more precisely with markets. For Europe, clear entry rules, transparent communication regarding safety, and competitive airfares and clear routes for the first trip are important. For Latin America and the Caribbean, price, flight frequency, and shorter vacations are relevant. For Asia, the restoration of air capacity, visa processes, and trust in the route. A single advertising campaign is not enough if the traveler sees a risk of document delay or unstable flight costs.

Airlines also receive a mixed signal. Demand for international flights has not disappeared, but destinations are recovering unevenly. This may mean a more cautious addition of frequencies, a more flexible distribution of aircraft between transatlantic, Latin American, and Asian routes, and also more attention to connections through hubs where passengers can combine the USA with Canada, Mexico, or the Caribbean.

Conclusion

May NTTO data does not show a crisis of international air transport to the USA, but shows the weakness of inbound tourism. 22.7 million international passenger boardings indicate that air connections overall are active. At the same time, the fall in overseas arrivals by 6.5% and the lag behind 2019 levels mean that the USA has not yet returned full attractiveness for a part of foreign tourists.

For travelers, this is a time for careful planning: compare several airports, check documents before buying non-refundable fares, allow for connection time, and do not assume that weaker demand will automatically make the trip cheaper. For the market, this is a signal that the 2026 season will depend not only on the number of flights, but also on trust, ease of entry, and the geopolitical background and the ability of destinations to convince tourists that a trip to the USA is worth its costs.